How This Bizarre Season Broke the Typical Coach of the Year Blueprint.
Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.
Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.
However this year's competition is fundamentally different. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and recent also-rans rising together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.
This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.
5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.
Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.
During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal season!
The area where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short here.
4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.
What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.
Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.
After an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.
The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.
Still
